The Demographic Implications of the Prison Boom: Evidence of a “Third Demographic Transition”?

The growth of the prison system over the last three decades represents a critical institutional intervention in the lives of American families. The massive buildup in the size of the penal population has not been due to large scale changes in crime or criminality. Instead, a host of changes at the local, state, and federal levels with respect to law enforcement and penal policy are implicated in the expansion of the prison system. Such a dramatic change in criminal justice policy – and rapid growth in the prison system – raises questions about its demographic effects. In this paper we combine data on the non-institutionalized population with data from surveys of inmates to examine the demographic implications of the prison boom. The massive growth of the penal system is notable not only for its size, but also for its disproportionate effects on minority and low-skill men. Results indicate that growth in the prison population over the past 30 years has been accompanied by low fertility, high morbidity due to communicable diseases, and high rates of involuntary population mobility among inmates and expansion of the prison system obscures the extent of racial inequality in demographic outcomes. We argue that the prison boom marks a “third demographic transition” representing growing institutional involvement in the lives of disadvantaged Americans.